By Dr. John H. Redekop
The May 2, 2011 Canadian general election can be described as probably the most transformative since Canada was established on July 1, 1867. Major results, aptly termed a seismic shift, will have long-term consequences.
The Quebec separatist movement suffered a huge setback when the Bloc Quebecois, which had 48 Members of Parliament when the election was called, lost 44 of them including party leader Gilles Duceppe. With this colossal defeat, the stunned Bloc Quebecois lost its official party status, together with the related funding. Its four remaining MPs will sit as Independents. Whether the younger generation of French-Canadians, which is more interested in economic advancement and personal fulfillment than independence, will ever again be aroused by calls for sovereignty remains to be seen. What happens to the provincial Parti Quebecois, also committed to separation, remains to be seen. It is now the Official Opposition in Quebec.
The New Democratic Party, Canada’s voice for social democracy, chalked up massive gains increasing parliamentary representation from 37 when Parliament was dissolved to 102, subject to some recounts. According to present vote tallies, 58 of these, including 57 newcomers, won seats in Quebec. For the first time, this social democratic party has risen to be the Official Opposition in Parliament. This historic achievement gives the New Democratic Party enhanced legitimacy, a prominent voice in legislative activity, and massive publicity. But the reality is that in actual influencing of legislation, it will have less impact than previously when it frequently could decide the outcome of parliamentary votes in the minority parliaments from 2004 until the recent election.
The Conservative Party, having won two minority victories under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, in 2006 and 2008, finally achieved its much-sought majority, increasing from 144 to 167 seats in the 308-member House of Commons. Although losing five of its eleven members from Quebec, the Conservatives added 21 members to their previous 52 Ontario Members of Parliament, which enabled them to achieve their success. A major reason for the Conservative victory was the Harper government’s enviable record in management of the economy during the Great Recession. Canada fared better than any other country in the Western world.
The Liberal Party, always forming the government or having Official Opposition status throughout Canada’s entire history, suffered its worst-ever defeat. Reduced from 77 to 34 seats, and with its leader, Michael Ignatieff losing his own Toronto seat, it will spend the next four years as a “third party” trying to rebuild itself. On its left flank it lost support to the New Democratic Party and on its right flank to the Conservative Party. Whether this centrist party can regain its once dominant status is doubtful. Canadian politics have become more polarized.
The Green Party, not a major force in Canadian politics, managed to elect its leader, Elizabeth May, in a West Coast constituency. It focused most of its energy on that one district. Its national support, however, dropped from 9.4 percent in 2008 to about 3.9 percent.
With its somewhat surprising success, the Conservative party can now implement various controversial platform planks, which had been blocked by the majority opposition parties in the two previous parliaments. Canadians can thus expect the following legislative developments:
* The costly long gun registry will be quickly scrapped. Whether it actually reduced crime remained doubtful. All other gun registration continues in force.
* The Harper government will move ahead with the acquisition of 60 very expensive fighter jets. The projected cost, ranging from $16 billion to more than $30 billion, could trigger serious public criticism.
* A package of crime control bills will be enacted. Although most crime rates have actually dropped across Canada, there is widespread support for these tougher crime bills.
* Modest social welfare enhancements will be passed, targeting low-income seniors and families.
* The $2 per vote public subsidy to all national parties for votes cast, will be ended. This action will be a severe economic blow to the financially strapped Liberal Party and an especially devastating blow to the Bloc Quebecois, which relied heavily on this public largesse. For this separatist party this subsidy cancellation may be a deathblow, a coup de grace. The termination of subsidy from a country, which the Bloc wished to destroy, may now destroy it!
* Additional tax reduction for corporations will be approved. The intent is to attract even more foreign investment.
In addition to this legislative action, various policies will be followed:
* Although the Harper government would prefer to see major reforms of the Senate, especially concerning reapportionment and election of senators, this cannot be done without unanimous provincial support, which is not forthcoming. The Prime Minister will therefore apparently proceed with a policy of appointing only Senate candidates who have been elected in their provinces.
* The Harper government is determined to balance the budget by 2014. Reaching that goal will require major expenditure reductions in several areas, given the commitment to increase health care expenditures by 6 percent a year.
* The Conservative government will continue to advance Canada’s presence and active role in world affairs. Major contributions to NATO military action in Afghanistan and noteworthy participation in the Libyan air action illustrate the policy intent.
* Support for Israel will continue to be strong. Under Prime Minister Harper, Canada has functioned as an exceptionally loyal ally of this lone democracy in the Middle East.
* The majority Conservative regime will continue its Recession-interrupted debt reduction policy. It will, however, be strongly challenged by the neophyte New Democratic Party Official Opposition which campaigned on policies which promised large expenditures in many social policy areas.
* In all likelihood, the Conservative policy toward climate control will remain very modest. While the Tory government has actually done well in addressing pollution reduction, its record on climate issues has been weak.
The NDP Official Opposition will face serious challenges. Aside from the fact that almost half of its members are parliamentary neophytes and in no position to do much of anything, various policy stances announced during the election campaign or followed when the party was still a much less significant or accountable “fourth party” in Parliament, will now haunt it. Five of these are particularly noteworthy:
* Leader Jack Layton promised that if he became Prime Minister, he would allow Quebec’s very restrictive French language laws to be applied to federal offices in Quebec. The vast majority of Canadians would doubtless strongly disapprove.
* Although Canada’s Supreme Court has upheld the Canadian Government’s Clarity Act which requires that any future Quebec separation referendum question must be clear and must be approved by Parliament, leader Layton allegedly assured Quebeckers that this was a matter to be decided only by the government of Quebec.
* In Parliament, some months ago, the NDP voted with the Bloc Quebecois to prevent a fair reallocation of House of Commons seats, an equitable action which would, however, reduce the percentage allotted to Quebec.
* Leader Layton has stated that in due course he wants to open the constitutional question, which involves the fact that in 1982, when Canada adopted its revised constitution, Quebec withheld its support. Expressing support for revisiting this matter may have brought some electoral support on May 2 but the long-term consequences of reopening this debate could be very divisive. This sleeping dog should have been allowed to continue its slumber.
* More than a few figures in the NDP campaign literature were not reliable. The funding of the extensive social welfare improvements was at best dubious. In particular, the inclusion of revenues from a carbon energy cap and trade program lacked credibility given that there is no such program in effect or on the horizon.
Dr. John H. Redekop is adjunct Professor of Political Science, Trinity Western University, Canada
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